By Adam C. Smith and Marc Caputo, Times/Herald Staff Writers
Saturday, April 14, 2012
With an iconic name and access to Washington cash, U.S. Rep. Connie Mack looked like the great Republican hope when he entered Florida's U.S. Senate race and posed a serious threat to Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson.
Six months later, however, Mack has proven to be neither a potent statewide candidate nor a shoe-in to win the Republican nomination against his little-known rivals.
From Washington to Tallahassee to local GOP clubs, GOP professionals and activists are buzzing about Mack's underwhelming campaign and debut as a statewide candidate. Some want another candidate.
Mack has managed to raise barely more money than former interim Sen. George LeMieux, who's tainted by his longtime association with former Republican-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist. They have slightly more than $1 million in the bank each. Nelson sits on $8.5 million without an expensive primary looming.
Only twice has Mack appeared for candidate forums with the two other major Republican candidates, and each time conservative activists who questioned and listened to all three voted Mack the weakest of the bunch.
"When he got into the race it's almost like Connie Mack sucked the air out of the race, but he wasn't able to sustain that," said Karin Hoffman, CEO of the Broward County-based DC Works for Us, which organized a tea party conference in Orlando attended by all the Senate candidates recently.
"As more time has gone on," she said, "the reaction to him from people paying attention has become, 'Well, not so much.'"
After the recent tea party forum, Hoffman said she started leaning toward LeMieux.
Mack's spokesman, David James, disputes what Republicans like Hoffman and many others are saying. He said Mack's support is strong and getting stronger.
"We feel very good with where we're at," James said. He said the campaigns fundraising totals would likely have been even higher had it not been for the January presidential primary in Florida that stretched donors thin.
As for the straw polls, James said they were "highly questionable" and almost procedurally "rigged" against Mack.
Polls indicate the Fort Myers congressman has little chance of losing the Republican race right now. His biggest asset: his name. His father, Connie Mack III, was a popular U.S. Senator and his great grandfather was a baseball icon. He's also married to California Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack, increasing his potential access to donors.
Mack was such a threat that, after entering the race, candidate Adam Hasner left the campaign to run for Congress.
With such a big name and big lead in the polls, Mack has ample time to kick his fundraising into high gear, improve his grassroots stumping and become the threat to Nelson that Republicans want.
People who attended the Orlando tea party conference, just like those who attended a similar one in February by the Florida Federation of Republican Women, noted Mack was the only candidate uninterested in personally chatting and connecting with the hard core activists in attendance.
In contrast, LeMieux and political newcomer Mike McCalister don't seem to leave a hand unshaken at these events. LeMieux won his third straw poll Thursday at the East Manatee Republican Club, which Mack skipped.
Mack announced his first TV ad this week, which ripped Nelson for approving the stimulus because it authorized $144,541 on research that tested effects of cocaine on monkeys. Filled with images and sounds of hooting monkeys, the ad blasts Nelson as a liberal.
Experienced campaign hands rolled their eyes. Normally, a candidate's first spot introduces himself to the public and frames serious issues he wants to talk about.
"Let's just say it's not the ad I would have run at this time," said Keith Appell, with CRC media, who worked on Gov. Rick Scott's campaign and helped coordinate media strategy for the infamous Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in 2004.
"There's a time and place for humor," Appell said. "But I'm not sure this is it."
Another experience Republican ad man in Scott's orbit, On Message's Curt Anderson, said he didn't want to say anything bad about the Mack campaign.
"Look on the bright side: At least they can tell their donors they didn't waste any money on production," he said. He said it's also "probably smart to try to post up against Sen. Nelson and ignore the primary."
Nelson has been steadily raising money — in the last three months he raised more money than Mack and LeMieux combined. Nelson's rising in the polls along with President Barack Obama. The last statewide poll from Quinnipiac University showed Nelson up by 8 percentage points over Mack. But pollsters and pundits widely view the two-term incumbent as beatable in such a volatile election year.
Quinnipiac didn't poll the Republican primary, in part because LeMieux and McCalister are so far behind. LeMieux had an anemic fundraising quarter. Where Mack pulled in about $1 million, LeMieux raised only $305,000.
LeMieux has just $1.2 million in the bank. Mack: $1.3 million. Unlike LeMieux, Mack began fundraising late because he only entered the race in November.
But Mack's sum is paltry compared to the estimated $8 million that former Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who withdrew from the race and endorsed Mack, planned to have on hand by now. Haridopolos raised more than LeMieux and Mack — a sign that the money's out there; but it's not flowing to Florida.
LeMieux has stumped the state aggressively, hammering Mack for the string of fistfights as a youth and for his numerous votes in Congress for budget-stuffing earmarks.
Though LeMieux looks like a longshot right now, his supporters point to the unpredictable Republican presidential primary in which little-known candidates made a serious run at Mitt Romney after they were declared unelectable.
Like those candidates, LeMieux could get help from an outside political group, known as a super PAC, called Saving Florida, which mocked the candidate as "Mini Mack."
One major outside group, the Club for Growth, has declined to get involved in the race. In August, before Mack jumped in, the club's leader lamented the absence of a candidate like Sen. Marco Rubio, who bested Crist in 2010.
Another Rubio-backing group, the conservative Concerned Women for America, says neither Mack nor LeMieux approached them for an endorsement and, therefore, financial help.
However, the conservative FreedomWorks group has been a huge backer of Mack's budget-cutting Penny Plan and it's likely to send help his way.
Meantime, in Palm Beach County, home to top Republican financiers, some have approached political newcomer Chris Salamone to see if he'd run.
Salamone wouldn't disclose the donors but confirmed that he was approached because of the "general perception of weakness in the current field against Nelson."
Pat Shortridge, a top adviser in Rubio's race, said he's hearing concern from national Republicans about the campaign. He said it's "not at all surprising" people are looking for another candidate, but "it's far-fetched at this late date" in the campaign.
"For conservatives, there's a lot of concern that we don't have a candidate in Florida," Shortridge said. "There are very serious concerns about the kind of candidate George LeMieux is, given his years as Charlie Crist's right-hand man and as attack dog against Marco Rubio, and lots of questions about Connie Mack."